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Monday, August 30, 2004

More on the committed voter

Most voters are committed, and a plurality are probabaly strongly committed. The truely undecided are smallish, probabaly less than 10%. As a result, when network execs and print editors consider whether to cover the issues or the horserace, they opt for the horserace, because the audience is bigger. If 50% is strongly committed, 40% is weakly committed, and 10% is undecided, I would expect 75% of the coverage to be horserace, and 25% to be a mixture of serious and attractive issues. Attractive issues, those which attract viewers but don't really have any bearing on the capacity to govern, are neccesary for ratings. Serious issues are complex and require sustained attention. People who pay close attention to issues and read the kinds of sustained issue oriented pieces tend to be the cmmitted voters, strongly or weakly. The true undecided often is either not paying attention until the last minute or is only paying a scant bit of attention.

So its natural that television coverage and a good deal of the daily press will cover the horserace and will not do a good job with the issues. There just isn't an audience for it. The political press, be it The New Republic, the Weekly Standard, or whatnot, is being read by active political people, not undecideds.

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